“If the international community doesn’t want the country to go to very dangerous places, we might see some initiatives,” said Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of An-Nahar newspaper. Gulf Arab states, which want to see the group’s wings clipped, will steer clear, held back by both their own concerns and U.S. Signs of reform may yield some aid, particularly from Europe that will be concerned by the prospect of another Arab state collapsing at its doorstep and a new influx of refugees arriving on its southern shores.īut Hezbollah’s continued influence will limit how much support is forthcoming. Hezbollah, feeling the political pain of the collapsing pound, leans on other groups to deliver some of these changes. In the movie Forrest Gump, Forrest’s mother refuses to. Meek and suppliant, the best man admitted he had forgotten the ring and begged the bride and groom for forgiveness. Western states led by France pile on pressure for change. After watching Tucker fail miserably because he had made bold demands, I decided to take a more suppliant tactic in asking for a raise. GOVERNMENT STARTS REFORMS, COLLAPSE SLOWEDĭesperate to halt the currency’s collapse, the sectarian elite gives a green light for the hitherto ineffectual government to enact some reforms. Dwindling central bank reserves continue to be exhausted. Without external support, the pound collapses further, extending an 80% crash since October. But he can deliver neither reforms nor progress on the IMF track. Prime Minister Hassan Diab faces growing demands to quit but Hezbollah sees keeping him in place as the least bad option, believing any change would be seen as a political defeat and open the way to a prolonged government vacuum. Here are some scenarios: PARALYSIS CONTINUES, COLLAPSE ACCELERATES With Lebanon facing one of its most difficult moments since independence in 1943, the choices made by its most powerful actor, Iranian-backed Hezbollah, will be vital in shaping what happens next. If they are right, we are sailing into a maelstrom. Hopes of salvation through an IMF deal have retreated with the government either unwilling or unable to enact reforms, hamstrung by the conflicting agendas of sectarian leaders who don’t want to yield power or privileges. In fact, the reaction to the discovery was referred to as a maelstrom of media attention and criticism. dollar banknotes next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut, Lebanon April 24, 2020.
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